Tropical Storm Karen

National Hurricane Center

All eyes are on Tropical Storm Karen as it developed overnight and continues to move WNW over the central tropical Atlantic. Karen is a large system, which typically develop more slowly than small ones. Large tropical systems are better for swell development because the wind field extends outward further from the center, giving the wind more fetch. The other positive with Karen is that it will be moving in the direction of the east coast of the U.S. over the next few days, pushing swell ahead of it and further increasing the fetch.

Forecasts are widely varied with this one, which means Karen could have a mind of her own and surprise everyone. She is expected to become a minimal hurricane before a series of upper level low pressure systems near the track limit development over the next few days. But if Karen decides to get her act together and becomes a major hurricane, all bets are off as the storm starts to control the upper level environment.

The other weather story is a cold front pushing into north Florida on Friday and yet another coastal low pressure system forming over the weekend, with strong high pressure again building into the NE U.S. This is forecast to provide increasing swell and strong winds for the east coast of Florida, and absorb the energy of the tropical wave now crossing the windward islands. Long-range models show the high pressure remaining entrenched, with Karen moving into the picture late in the forecast period. The pressure gradient between the 2 systems looks to produce a long duration swell event for the east coast, starting with Florida and gradually filtering up the entire east coast. We will keep you posted as the situation develops.