September 26th 2007

We are crossing our fingers at the mission surf camp as we look towards Sunday. This could be the one we've been waiting for...

Tropical Report

The weather discussion for Karen this evening was exactly what I was hoping for. Often times with tropical systems, the actual wind field is so small, even with intense systems, that the swell produced just doesn’t ever get that big. That’s because the fetch that the wind blows over isn’t very long. Sometimes with large sheared systems like Karen, most of the wind is displaced to one side of the system, so the fetch can be larger, and even though the winds aren’t as intense, if they are moving towards land, the swell produced can be significantly bigger than a smaller more intense system. The shear is forecast to possibly intensify over the next few days, but the track has shifted more to the west, which is good news as it will pass closer to the east coast. The hurricane hunter investigating the system found tropical storm force winds over 100 miles from the center, which is impressive considering that it is only a tropical storm. If it continues to move in the direction of Cape Hatteras, then the virtual fetch will continue to increase, building the seas in that area more as the storm continues to move. If it stalls as some models are hinting, then there is potential for a long duration swell event, perfect for the Mission: Surf.

More to come...

M